Forecasting and Aggregate Planning in Production Planning to Meet The Demand of The Yardlong Bean Seed Market

Abstract

Market demand is always increasing and the high production costs incurred by the company cause production is not optimal. This study aims to forecast market demand in the future so that companies can prepare production and meet market demand and determine cost-efficient production strategies. This research was conducted at CV Multi Global Agrindo, Karanganyar Regency from April 6 to June 30 2023. The method used is Forecasting with the ARIMA model, Winter's Exponential Smoothing
and classical decomposition. Selection of the appropriate forecasting method is determined by the forecasting method that has the smallest error value among the several forecasting methods used, then the strategy is determined using aggregate planning to determine the production strategy using the Chase Strategy and Level Strategy methods. Respondents in this study consisted of 6 people including company directors, representative managers, marketing managers, production managers and production staff. The results showed that the correct forecasting method was Winter's Exponential Smoothing with an average demand for the next period of 174.3825 kg of kacang panjang seeds/month. The right strategy is the Chase Strategy with RP costs. 93,600,000 in one year.